In the past year, Poland recorded over 140,000 more deaths than births, according to Statistics Poland (GUS).
The demographic decline in the country is becoming increasingly evident. In May of this year, 32,500 deaths were recorded while only 21,000 births were registered. June followed a similar pattern with 29,000 deaths compared to 19,000 births.
Over the last 12 months, Poland has seen 259,900 births against 403,700 deaths. The introduction of the 500+ child benefit program (now 800+) in 2016 initially boosted the birth rate, but this increase faltered by early 2018 and has since plummeted.
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| Births and Deaths in Poland (green line: births, red line: deaths), source: X@RafalMundry. |
Poland now faces one of the sharpest population declines within the European Union. According to Eurostat, last year saw the Polish population drop by nearly 133,000, far exceeding the decreases in Greece (16,800) and Hungary (15,100). Among the 27 EU countries, seven recorded population declines, while the remaining 20 saw increases, led by Spain (+525,000), Germany (+330,000) and France (+229,000).
Experts warn that demographic challenges will impact future labor markets and pension payouts. “Larger age cohorts are retiring, which means the number of working-age individuals is decreasing, leading to fewer people supporting an increasing group of pension recipients,” stated Oskar Sobolewski, a pension and labor market expert at HRK Payroll Consulting.
GUS reported that the nation’s population situation has been challenging for many years, with very low birth rates, high death rates, and fewer marriages than in 2022, worsening the ongoing adverse demographic trend. The government’s statistical office cautioned that significant positive changes in the demographic outlook should not be expected in the near future.
