So much has happened since spring 2023’s Pentagon leaks that few even remember that they happened, but they’re more relevant than ever amidst Ukraine’s ongoing invasion of Russia’s Kursk Region since they proved that Zelensky had been plotting this since January 2023. The Washington Post reported on this aspect of those leaks in May 2023, writing that the US was already aware by then that Zelensky thought that this move would “give Kyiv leverage in talks with Moscow.”
This wasn’t lost on the Russians either since RT promptly published an article about it, which was analyzed here at the time, thus raising questions about why there weren’t better border defenses in place just in case. These reports circulated right before Ukraine’s ultimately failed counteroffensive, so it’s possible that the border was fortified as a precaution ahead of that happening, but then Russia grew complacent with its on-the-ground gains in Donbass over the past year and let its guard down.
About that, this analysis here from last week pointed out that Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk Region should incentivize Russia to finally eliminate groupthink. It’s difficult to believe that there were no reports whatsoever about a build-up along the border ahead of time, thus meaning that higher-ups might have dismissed whatever they were speculatively told by their underlings as “irrational”. Therein lies the problem since Ukraine always ends up surprising Russia but relevant lessons have yet to be learned.
Whether it’s long-range drone strikes against its strategic airfields, early warning systems, and even the Kremlin or naval drone attacks against its Black Sea fleet, all of which are aided by the Anglo-American Axis, Russia should have expected by now that every one of its soft spots is a likely target. Nevertheless, it’s regularly caught with its pants down, though folks also shouldn’t forget that it still intercepts a lot of drones and foils many impending plots too.
With that being said, more could have been done to protect the border from the invasion that Zelensky had been plotting for a year and a half. Prior to the latest events, he employed terrorist proxies for cross-border raids into Belgorod Region, which might have deceived Russia into thinking that Ukraine abandoned its plans for a conventional invasion. That could explain why the only forces that it deployed along the border were counter-sabotage units who were unprepared to fend off a real invasion.
Such a decision still represents a lapse in judgement, however, when recalling that Ukrainian military-intelligence chief Budanov drew attention to Kursk Region in mid-May shortly after the start of Russia’s push into his country’s Kharkov Region. He said at the time that “they are holding a small group of forces in the border area, in the town of Sudzha. From our side, it is the Sumy direction, but the situation has not yet allowed them to take active action and start, let's say, implementing their plan.”
As it turns out, Russia never reinforced its “small group of forces in the border area”, thus explaining why Ukraine was able to breach the border and is now fighting for control for Sudzha. Russia might have dismissed the forces that Ukraine assembled in preparation of this as an overreaction to Budanov’s aforementioned fear of a push into Sumy Region. If anything, some Russian policymakers might have even been pleased to see them, thinking that it’s better for them to be deployed there than to Donbass.
Simply put, Ukraine not only “psyched-out” Russia, but it masterfully manipulated its perceptions after realizing long ago (or being told by the Anglo-American Axis) how strongly it’s affected by groupthink. Time and again, a little creative thinking on Russia’s part would have made all the difference in thwarting Ukraine’s myriad plots, yet outdated mindsets continue to prevail in spite of all that’s happened. That needs to change, and urgently, in order for the special operation to succeed in its goals.
