Consumer prices in Poland rose by 5 percent year-on-year in October 2024, with a 0.3 percent increase from the previous month, according to the Central Statistical Office’s (GUS) preliminary report published on Thursday.
The inflationary rise aligns with the expectations of analysts surveyed by PAP Biznes, who anticipated a 5 percent annual increase and a 0.4 percent monthly spike.
The GUS highlighted the impact of rising energy costs as a primary driver of inflation. “In October 2024, the prices of consumer goods and services according to the flash estimate were 5 percent higher than last year,” GUS reported on social media.
It’s the seventh consecutive rise in Poland’s inflationary rate, dating back to March this year.
“The high growth rate is mainly related to increases in energy bills – their prices are 11.5 percent higher than a year ago,” noted Jakub Rybacki, head of the macroeconomics team at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE).
“The prices of services and a lower reference point for fuel prices are also of great importance – refueling a car costs the same as a year ago,” he added.
Rybacki predicted that inflation may ease slightly in the final two months of the year due to stable fuel prices and a slower rise in food prices, but prices could jump again in the new year.
“At the end of the year, inflation should be close to 4.5-4.7 percent. From January, we will have another increase in energy prices – this one will probably increase inflation again,” he told wPolityce.
The inflation trend across Europe is also cooling, though Poland’s inflation rate remains among the highest in the EU.
“Eurostat data allows us to calculate that the percentage of expenditure for which the annual price increase exceeds 5 percent is currently approximately 25 percent on average in the EU. At the beginning of the year, this figure was closer to 45 percent,” Rybacki explained, highlighting that Poland’s rate remains elevated within the European community.
Food prices jumped 4.9 percent from the previous year, with a 0.7 percent increase from September. Policy changes, such as the planned increase in VAT on food to 5 percent and adjustments to the household energy price cap, are expected to keep inflation high, well above the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) target range of 2.5 percent, with a one-point margin.
