The recent elections in Austria have been dominated by discussions surrounding the Freedom Party of Austria's (FPÖ) unexpected victory. With the party garnering significant support, analysts are diving deep into possible factors that influenced voter sentiment. One intriguing perspective suggests that the recent cancellation of Taylor Swift's concert in Vienna, due to a terror threat, may have played a pivotal role in shaping the election outcome. Péter Dobrowiecki, a Hungarian political analyst, posits that the resonance of such a security scare in a nation already grappling with the implications of migration and radicalization could have swayed young voters in favor of the right-wing FPÖ. This article explores the intersections of national security, youth political engagement, and the shifting electoral landscape in Austria.
RE: While political analysts around the world are examining how the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) scored a huge victory during elections in Austria on Sunday, one Hungarian analysts is putting forward the theory that the cancellation of Taylor Swift concert due to a terror threat in Vienna could have put the right-wing party over the finish line.
“It is enough to think about the events of a few weeks ago, when some young Islamists, already radicalized in Austria, tried to commit an assassination attempt at the Taylor Swift concert in Vienna. The authorities also admitted that if the Islamist attack had occurred, there would have been many victims,” said Péter Dobrowiecki, head of research at the Hungarian-German Institute of Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC), while speaking to Hungarian news outlet Hirado.hu.
When the interviewer asked him if a canceled Taylor Swift concert could have really affected the election results, Dobrowiecki doubled down:
“This is a rather extreme theory, but in the end it did (affect the results). There have been acts of terrorism in Austria before. In November 2020, several people were murdered in Vienna by an armed (foreign) maniac on the open street. The Austrians have already experienced what an actual Islamist attack is like, so a failed terrorist attack carries more weight there than in Hungary or other countries in the region,” said Dobrowiecki.
🇦🇹🚨AUSTRIA: FPÖ PARTY PREDICTED TO WIN NATIONAL ELECTIONS WITH 29.1% OF THE VOTE.Lead candidate Herbert Kickl openly says he supports remigration.“Remigration! I have absolutely no problem to say that word." pic.twitter.com/Ii3vIrjpJ7— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 29, 2024
“People already face everyday problems on the street. According to demographic statistics, every third or fifth person living in Austria’s big cities is not an Austrian citizen or was not born in Austria. This in itself would not necessarily be a problem, but when this same pattern appears in criminal statistics — especially with regard to violent crimes — then Austrian voters can make the connection,” he stated.
He went on by saying that the failure of integration in Germany is, to a lesser extent, “an imprint of the situation in Austria. There are more and more crimes committed by people with a migration background, and the issue of the spread of radical Islamism is becoming more pressing.”
There may be some credence to his claims. For one, younger voters delivered FPÖ its victory and ended up voting for the party in higher numbers than the polling predicted they would. Many of these younger voters are notoriously difficult to poll, as they are harder to reach through traditional means, such as landlines.
Notably, the party won a whopping 37 percent of 35 to 59-year-old voters and 27 percent of 18 to 34-year-old voters. The only reason the party did not do better than its record-high performance was due to older voters, which overwhelmingly backed the establishment parties.
Taylor Swift fans, also known as “Swifties,” are notoriously obsessed with the singer and her arrival in Vienna was likely seen as a major event. The fact that she had to cancel three concerts means that tens of thousands of fans were affected. Swift herself said about the planned terror attacks that they filled her with “a new sense of fear,” and that she felt a “tremendous amount of guilt” over the incident. Notably, Swift herself has endorsed Kamala Harris for president, but for thousands of scared and outraged Swift fans in Vienna, the connection to Islamic terrorism and the cancelation of the concerts was undeniable.
Furthermore, the slight advantage the FPÖ enjoyed over the ÖVP in the final results may mean that these “Swifties” may have truly shifted the race, assuming they did vote for the FPÖ.
Young people are also facing the consequences of mass migration in their schools, in the clubs, and on the playground. For instance, one-third of all primary school students in Vienna are Muslims and many students increasingly do not speak German. Furthermore, it is not the oldest generation facing sexual harassment, the threat of rape, and even murder due to mass immigration. Most of the oldest people in Austrian society see migrants as a cheap option for a maid or someone to take care of the gardening, and their interactions with them outside of these controlled settings are likely very limited.
The FPÖ party has also focused on the concerns of younger voters, and many of its party activists are younger women.
The political analyst also delivered other comments on the election, stating that the Green-ÖVP coalition that has ruled Austria was an “experiment.”
“Today it can be seen that this was a short-lived era for both Germany and Austria since the support of the green parties has now halved. While a few years ago we could talk about 18-20 percent support in their case, today the scale shows only 9-10 percent. This indicates that although these parties have a core of voters, typically among the urban, middle-class young intelligentsia, their broader voter base has evaporated,” he said.
However, despite the surge in FPÖ voters, it may not be enough to form a coalition.
“The Austrian parliamentary parties have already firmly indicated that they do not wish to cooperate with the Freedom Party, and especially with party chairman Herbert Kickl. However, it is a big question whether the Austrian People’s Party, which has been in the majority until now, might want to be part of a government not led by Kickl, and whether the SPÖ (Austrian Social Democratic Party), which obtained the third most votes, would agree to such a deal,” he said.
He believes that the People’s Party, the SPÖ and perhaps the liberal NEOS will form a grand coalition, while the Freedom Party will remain in opposition.
While the article focuses on the October 2024 elections and the aftermath involving the FPÖ's performance, further developments may include ongoing discussions about coalition formations or the reactions of other political parties regarding these election results. To stay updated, monitoring news sources for analysis on how FPÖ might influence future policies and political dynamics in Austria, particularly in light of terrorism and migration, is prudent. Checking reliable news outlets and political analysis platforms could provide the latest developments as they unfold.
