After all the song and dance, anger and demonstrations, the terror attacks and mass immigration, the election result was incredibly good for the German establishment when all is said and done. With just 14,000 votes, the election result could have been radically different.
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| Image Credit: Hesham Elsherif / Stringer / Getty |
German democracy only applies if a party scores 5 percent of the vote, and if they fail to achieve that, millions of votes can be flushed down the drain and those voters get no representation at all. While most countries have some kind of voter hurdle in Europe, Germany’s is exceptionally high.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) came incredibly close to wielding power, scoring 4.972 percent of the vote. In all of Germany, they were short 14,000 votes.
The result means that the composition of parliament is vastly different than it would have been if the party was included. Now, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Social Democrats (SPD) can form the status quo coalition without a third party.
🇩🇪🗳️ AfD's Alice Weidel issues a stark warning to Friedrich Merz:
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 24, 2025
"If the CDU commits electoral fraud against its own voters by forming a coalition with the left, the next election will come sooner than you think.
Then, we will overtake the CDU as the strongest force!" pic.twitter.com/qJ4PRki24F
If BSW had made it into parliament, the CDU would have had to find a third coalition partner, as the SPD would not have been enough to secure a majority. With a two-party coalition, not only is it easier for the CDU to form a government but that government is also likely to be far more stable than a three-party coalition. The AfD and BSW would have also taken a third of all seats, which would have given them a blocking minority, and would have enabled them to push back in certain areas.
So far, Sahra Wagenknecht has stated that it would not be the end of her party regardless of whether the BSW makes it into parliament or not; however, she has signaled she may withdraw from politics. Where that leaves her party is anybody’s guess. Wagenknecht has not commented on any potential legal challenges to the vote.
🇩🇪🗳️ The Alternative for Germany was utterly dominant in former East German states with the notable exception of Berlin. pic.twitter.com/XAPatUZKlf
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) February 23, 2025
However, BSW MEP Fabio de Masi is already raising questions about the election outcome, writing on X: “I fear this election will still keep Karlsruhe busy.”
“A legal round is not out of the question. Proceedings first in the Bundestag, then in the Federal Constitutional Court. The question is, are there electoral errors and are they relevant to the mandate?” wrote Masi.
Eine juristische Runde ist nicht ausgeschlossen. Verfahren erst im Bundestag, dann BVerfG. Frage ist, gibt es Wahlfehler und sind diese mandatsrelevant… https://t.co/CiQgVoJLYv
— Iris Sayram (@irisma8) February 24, 2025
There are already questions about Germans living abroad and whether they were able to properly vote in the election.
CDU leader Friedrich Merz signaled he wants a coalition government in place by Easter. Leading SPD politicians are already signaling they are ready to work with him.
Scholz, meanwhile, said he would not accept any government office other than chancellor, but he has ruled out taking the lead in negotiations with the CDU. The CDU will undoubtedly face tough negotiations ahead. The party’s only real option is the SPD, as they have ruled out the AfD. As a result, the SPD can exert maximum pressure on the CDU.
What does that mean? It could mean that Germany’s current immigration and economic problems may only grow worse. AfD leader Alice Weidel has signaled she is ready to work with the CDU; however, she may have to wait another five years for the opportunity to do so.