In the years leading up to the deadly flood that swept away children and counselors at Camp Mystic, federal regulators quietly and repeatedly granted appeals to remove the camp’s buildings from the government’s official flood danger zone—even as the camp expanded deeper into a known floodplain.
A review by the Associated Press raises disturbing questions: Why did the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) roll back critical safeguards? And who benefited from erasing Camp Mystic from the flood map?
FEMA had originally designated the Texas girls’ summer camp as being inside a federally recognized “Special Flood Hazard Area” in 2011, triggering strict oversight and mandatory flood insurance. But over the following years, that designation was quietly stripped away, loosening restrictions and allowing risky development with fewer checks.
Now, after the tragic loss of life, critics are asking whether federal regulators looked the other way—and why. That designation means an area is likely to be inundated during a 100-year flood — one severe enough that it only has a 1% chance of happening in any given year.
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| Locations of cabins approximate based on available aerial imagery. Not all cabins are represented. Source: FEMA |
AP report: Located in a low-lying area along the Guadalupe River in a region known as flash flood alley, Camp Mystic lost at least 27 campers and counselors and longtime owner Dick Eastland when historic floodwaters tore through its property before dawn on July 4.
The flood was far more severe than the 100-year event envisioned by FEMA, experts said, and moved so quickly in the middle of the night that it caught many off guard in a county that lacked a warning system.
But Syracuse University associate professor Sarah Pralle, who has extensively studied FEMA’s flood map determinations, said it was “particularly disturbing” that a camp in charge of the safety of so many young people would receive exemptions from basic flood regulation.
“It’s a mystery to me why they weren’t taking proactive steps to move structures away from the risk, let alone challenging what seems like a very reasonable map that shows these structures were in the 100-year flood zone,” she said.
Camp Mystic didn’t respond to emails seeking comment and calls to it rang unanswered. The camp has called the flood an “unimaginable tragedy” and added in a statement Thursday that it had restored power for the purpose of communicating with its supporters.
FEMA exempted buildings at old and new sites
In response to an appeal, FEMA in 2013 amended the county’s flood map to remove 15 of the camp’s buildings from the hazard area. Records show that those buildings were part of the 99-year-old Camp Mystic Guadalupe, which was devastated by last week’s flood.
After further appeals, FEMA removed 15 more Camp Mystic structures in 2019 and 2020 from the designation. Those buildings were located on nearby Camp Mystic Cypress Lake, a sister site that opened to campers in 2020 as part of a major expansion and suffered less damage in the flood.
Campers have said the cabins at Cypress Lake withstood significant damage, but those nicknamed “the flats” at the Guadalupe River camp were inundated.
Experts say Camp Mystic’s requests to amend the FEMA map could have been an attempt to avoid the requirement to carry flood insurance, to lower the camp’s insurance premiums or to pave the way for renovating or adding new structures under less costly regulations.
Pralle said the appeals were not surprising because communities and property owners have used them successfully to shield specific properties from regulation.
Analysis shows flood risks at both camp sites
Regardless of FEMA’s determinations, the risk was obvious.
At least 12 structures at Camp Mystic Guadalupe were fully within FEMA’s 100-year flood plain, and a few more were partially in that zone, according to an AP analysis of data provided by First Street, a data science company that specializes in modeling climate risk.
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| Locations of cabins approximate based on available aerial imagery. Not all cabins are represented. Source: FEMA |
Jeremy Porter, the head of climate implications at First Street, said FEMA’s flood insurance map underestimates flood risks. That’s because it fails to take into account the effects of heavy precipitation on smaller waterways such as streams and creeks. First Street’s model puts nearly all of Camp Mystic Guadalupe at risk during a 100-year flood.
The buildings at the newer Cypress Lake site are farther from the south fork of the flood-prone river but adjacent to Cypress Creek. FEMA’s flood plain doesn’t consider the small waterway a risk.
However, First Street’s model, which takes into account heavy rain and runoff reaching the creek, shows that the majority of the Cypress Lake site lies within an area that is at risk during a 100-year flood.