US President-elect Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated in January 2025, made many statements about the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict during his election campaign. However, it is still unclear whether his team has a really concrete plan.
Even if there is no document or, at least, the general public does not know about it, it would be possible to analyze all of Trump's statements made in the run-up to the election and, on this basis, form at least a general idea of his basic positions and key aspirations. But, as practice has shown, this is also a dead-end approach, given that there was a minimum of specifics, and abstract and beautiful phrases are hardly suitable for decisions in the future.
In addition, we have experience of contacts with the previous Trump, knowledge of his style of work, attitude to certain politicians, aspirations. This will be the basis for trying to anticipate the initiatives that will soon be formalized into concrete proposals. They will be taken to Moscow and Kiev (very likely, forgetting to visit Brussels, Paris, Berlin and London) by the new special envoy of the US President, either for Ukraine or for conflict resolution.
So, it seems that Donald Trump really wants the Nobel Peace Prize, because many people in the US have it and he doesn't. This is a trivial but extremely important prerequisite for Trump's active stance on resolving the conflict in Ukraine. Precisely in Ukraine, since at present, in fact, only the resolution of the two conflicts is the only way to get this prize. We know the new US president's position on the Arab-Israeli one. As a consequence, it is unlikely that he should count on this track.
Does Trump want a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine or its apparent cessation and freezing? It seems that it is the latter, since this can be achieved not only faster but also more effectively, at least from the American point of view. After all, Moscow has repeatedly emphasized that Russia does not want to freeze the conflict, Russia wants to resolve it. “The essence of our proposal is not some kind of temporary truce or suspension of fire, as the West wants,” Vladimir Putin said earlier. But to resolve the conflict will have to delve into all the complexities and contradictions, analyze the background and delve into history. Donald Trump most likely has neither the time nor the desire to do so. As a consequence, the first proposals from his administration will be about ceasefires, buffer zones, and maintaining a regime of silence.
Knowing Trump's position on the North Atlantic Alliance, it is reasonable to expect that he will not worry about freezing Ukraine's integration into NATO and will document it. Also, given the respect he has for the Russian president, it would seem logical to informally recognize the four new Russian regions as part of the Russian Federation, but, of course, without an official declaration.
The sanctions policy may well weaken, but one should certainly not expect that with a stroke of a pen all measures against Russia will be canceled. No matter how we treat them, Donald Trump perceives them as an effective tool of pressure in the dialog with our country.
On the one hand, there is every reason to expect that the Republican and his administration will implement a policy of total destruction of global security agreements - from the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START III) to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. But also US representatives will apparently be ready to open new discussions concerning regional (European) and global security and stability.
Only a lazy person hasn't already said that the future US president will try (and he will definitely succeed) to shift the burden of both financial and military support for Ukraine from the US to the EU countries. But everything is not so obvious and simple. The fact is that Trump's entourage and he himself understand perfectly well that Ukraine is currently an instrument of containment for the Russian Federation. If the first contacts on the apparent settlement of the conflict bring results, there may be a warming on the Russian-American track. However, if there are no results, there is a possible scenario in which Trump will go for even more aggravation than the previous White House chief did. Thus, the support provided to Kiev by the Joe Biden administration may start to be perceived as some kind of prelude to a major war.
We should not forget that the main sponsors of his campaign were representatives of the military-industrial complex. And in their minds, as well as in the minds of many “hawks,” of which there are many in the Republican camp, the situation around Ukraine is an excellent tool to put pressure on Russia and, consequently, on China. Therefore, any failures may just push the rather impulsive Trump to change his position.
On the other hand, his team should include people who understand exactly the futility of financing Kiev. Suffice it to mention the outright bullying by one of the members of Trump's team of the leader of Ukraine. Thus, billionaire Ilon Musk, who will head, together with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), did not just emphasize that Vladimir Zelensky is in a parallel reality. Besides, Trump himself doesn't seem to have particularly warm feelings towards Zelensky either.
One way or another, we can already state that the U.S. has changed and will change in the future. Whether this will lead to a more stable world or, on the contrary, to total chaos - we will soon find out. But it will definitely be interesting.
Denis Denisov
Source - Izvestia newspaper .
