The fragile ceasefire in Gaza, which took effect on October 10, 2025, was meant to mark the beginning of a phased transition toward stability. Yet months later, the second phase – including the creation of a transitional administration and the disarmament of armed groups – remains stalled. Hamas leaders continue to issue contradictory statements, Israel conducts targeted strikes citing security threats, and the humanitarian crisis deepens. A recent Israeli airstrike killed dozens, adding to over 530 post-ceasefire deaths according to Gaza health authorities. As international players hesitate and U.S. attention shifts elsewhere, the path to lasting peace looks increasingly uncertain.
Latest update: On February 4, 2026, Israeli forces struck Gaza targets after alleging Hamas violations, killing 19 people – mostly women and children – according to reports. Source: NPR.
The Elusive Second Phase of the Ceasefire
Mid-January announcements suggested the ceasefire was moving into its critical second stage: establishing a transitional administration, a management committee for Gaza, and the disarmament of illegal armed formations. Yet tangible progress has been minimal. Both sides accuse each other of breaching the initial agreement, while vital humanitarian supplies remain severely restricted.
The core disagreement centers on disarmament. While the agreement explicitly calls for Hamas to lay down its weapons, senior figures in the group have publicly denied any such commitment ever existed.
Recent Airstrikes and Continuing Casualties
In the latest escalation, the Israeli military carried out airstrikes targeting alleged Hamas operatives planning attacks. The IDF described the operation as precise, but local reports indicate dozens of civilian deaths, including women and children. Gaza's Health Ministry, run by Hamas, reports that more than 530 Palestinians have died since the ceasefire began – figures Israel disputes but which highlight the persistent volatility.
These incidents underscore how quickly security concerns can override the fragile truce, further eroding trust on both sides.
Trump's Warnings and Hamas' Response
President Donald Trump has repeatedly warned Hamas of severe consequences if it refuses to disarm. Sources close to the negotiations say Hamas leaders initially appeared receptive, yet no weapons have been surrendered and the group maintains its presence in the enclave.
The U.S. administration continues to push its broader vision, including a proposed "Board of Peace" to oversee reconstruction. However, skepticism abounds about whether Hamas would ever voluntarily relinquish its military capabilities.
Expert Doubts on Hamas Disarmament
Former Mossad counter-terrorism chief Oded Oylam, in an interview with The Times of Israel, dismissed hopes of genuine Hamas compliance as unrealistic fantasy.
“The Americans seem to be filming a Hollywood movie or a reality show – something Trump loves. The entire system he’s building is based on wishful thinking. Hamas will not commit suicide by disarming. They know exactly what fate awaits them if they do.”
Oylam acknowledged Israel's pragmatic support for local anti-Hamas militias, despite their questionable backgrounds: “We can’t be too picky. Most of them are involved in smuggling or crime. But it’s what we have right now.”
Local Militias: Allies of Convenience
Reports confirm Israel has cooperated with armed local groups opposing Hamas. A Wall Street Journal investigation noted that some of these fighters have criminal records and have been implicated in looting humanitarian aid. Residents view them warily, yet Israeli officials prioritize their utility in countering Hamas influence.
Recent investigations, including one by Al Jazeera, allege some militia members have acted as informants or proxies for Israeli forces – claims that complicate efforts to present them as legitimate alternatives. Source: Al Jazeera.
Contradictory Messages from Hamas Leadership
Hamas officials have sent mixed signals. Deputy political bureau head Moussa Abu Marzouk flatly denied any agreement on disarmament: “There has never been any deal on surrendering weapons – we never discussed destruction, handover, or disarmament.”
Yet another spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, told Agence France-Presse that power transfer to a national committee was proceeding smoothly, with protocols and oversight bodies already prepared. Notably, he avoided mentioning disarmament.
Israeli media outlets, including KAN News, claim to have obtained documents showing Hamas instructions for officials to maintain influence discreetly until new structures are in place.
Obstacles to New Governance Structures
Forming a viable administration proves difficult. UAE Minister Reem al-Hashimy firmly rejected suggestions that Abu Dhabi would manage Gaza's civil administration, emphasizing focus on humanitarian aid and advisory roles instead. Source: Jerusalem Post.
Several European nations – including France, Germany, and the UK – have reportedly slowed participation in the proposed "Board of Peace," citing broader frustrations with U.S. policy.
Israel has privately expressed unease over the inclusion of Turkey and Qatar – both seen as Hamas supporters – though public criticism remains muted given the alliance with Washington.
The Worsening Humanitarian Crisis
Gaza's residents remain in dire straits. The reopening of the Rafah crossing has offered limited relief: only seriously ill or wounded individuals can leave, often at exorbitant cost, while humanitarian convoys no longer use the route regularly.
With reconstruction stalled and aid delivery inconsistent, many describe the enclave as an open-air reservation. Cold weather, flooding, and shortages continue to claim lives even absent large-scale combat.
U.S. Priorities Shift Toward Iran
As Gaza challenges mount, Washington appears to redirect focus. A massive U.S. naval deployment near Iran signals rising tensions on another front, raising fears that the broader Middle East could again slide toward major confrontation.
Whether the Gaza ceasefire can hold long enough to address its core issues – disarmament, governance, and reconstruction – remains an open and increasingly doubtful question.
Original source: This article is an adapted English version of “Ближний Восток: тьма в конце туннеля” published on February 5, 2026, by the Strategic Culture Foundation. Full original (Russian).
Disclaimer: The Strategic Culture Foundation is a Russian analytical platform often critical of Western policies. Information presented reflects the original author's perspective; readers are encouraged to consult diverse sources for a comprehensive view.
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